ArbDeskv4
Polymarket daily-temperature markets · forecast vs. book
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One city's full bucket ladder, priced in probability as well as cents — a price in cents is an implied probability, and the trade is the gap between two of them. Model % is AD4's own read from forecast skill; type over it in Your % where you disagree, and every figure below re-weights to your number.

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Nothing here places an order. Fills are capped at each bucket's measured Depth — a stake larger than the book buys the book, not the stake, and the ticket says so rather than quoting an imaginary fill. Fees are the real taker schedule, shares × 0.05 × p × (1 − p), taken out of the stake. Resting a limit order instead pays zero and earns a rebate.